{ "schema": "2.0", "document": { "schema": "2.0", "key": "quant-research", "locale": "tr", "path": "/quant/research", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research", "alternates": { "tr": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research", "en": "https://oxarus.com/en/quant/research" }, "unit": "quant", "status": "live", "parent": "quant", "order": 14, "label": "Araştırma", "title": "Forex piyasa yapısı araştırmaları · Oxarus Quant", "description": "Destek ve direnç seviyeleri, hafta sonu boşlukları ve fiyatın seviyelerdeki davranışı üzerine milyonlarca dakikalık veriyle yaptığımız çalışmalar.", "breadcrumbs": [ { "label": "Oxarus ana sayfa", "path": "/", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr" }, { "label": "Oxarus Quant", "path": "/quant", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant" }, { "label": "Araştırma", "path": "/quant/research", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research" } ], "sections": [ { "id": "hero", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research", "kind": "hero", "component": "ResearchHero", "sources": [ "messages:quantResearch.hero" ], "eyebrow": "QUANT · ARAŞTIRMA", "title": "önce ölçüyoruz.", "lead": "Piyasada çok bilinen ama az ölçülen fikirleri veriyle sınıyoruz: yedi yıllık dakikalık fiyat, her fikir için eşleşmiş bir kontrol grubu ve ikinci bir paritede tekrar. Tutmayan fikirleri de yayımlıyoruz.", "demo": true, "placeholder": false, "blocks": [ { "type": "actions", "items": [ { "label": "Kurumsal araştırma", "action": "open_page", "args": { "path": "/quant/research", "anchor": "cta-heading" }, "href": "/tr/quant/research#cta-heading", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.primary" }, { "label": "Bulgular", "action": "open_page", "args": { "path": "/quant/research", "anchor": "studies" }, "href": "/tr/quant/research#studies", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.secondary" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.primary" }, { "type": "list", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "2020–2026 dakikalık veri", "Her testte eşleşmiş kontrol grubu", "EURUSD ve GBPUSD'de tekrar" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.checks" }, { "type": "list", "style": "ordered", "items": [ "Seviye", "Kontrol", "Sonuç" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.steps" }, { "type": "demo", "representative": true, "caption": "Temsili grafik; bulgular araştırma amaçlıdır, yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.", "blocks": [ { "type": "group", "key": "demo", "blocks": [ { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "file", "value": "level_study.ipynb", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.file" }, { "label": "dataset", "value": "EURUSD · M1 · 2020–2026 · 40.658 dokunuş", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.dataset" }, { "label": "tag", "value": "Temsili grafik", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.tag" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.file" }, { "type": "list", "style": "tags", "items": [ "Dokunuşları say", "Kontrol çizgilerini kur", "Oranları karşılaştır" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.tabs" }, { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "done", "value": "tamam", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.done" }, { "label": "level", "value": "Önceki gün yükseği (PDH)", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.level" }, { "label": "band", "value": "bant = 0,05 × ATR", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.band" }, { "label": "levelTag", "value": "PDH", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.levelTag" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.done" }, { "type": "group", "key": "control", "title": "Eşleşmiş kontrol", "blocks": [ { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "tag", "value": "ctl", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlTag" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlTag" }, { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "body", "value": "Her gerçek seviye için, aynı mesafede duran ama hiçbir anlamı olmayan bir çizgi. Başka bir günün gerçek ofsetinden, 7 gün kaydırılarak.", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlBody" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlBody" }, { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "Gerçek seviye", "value": "9–25 / gün", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlStats.0" }, { "label": "Kontrol çizgisi", "value": "~25 / gün", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlStats.1" }, { "label": "Mesafe dağılımı", "value": "eşit", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlStats.2" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.controlStats" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.control" }, { "type": "cards", "title": "Aynı seviyeye üç dokunuş", "items": [ { "id": "0", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.0", "fields": [ { "label": "n", "value": "#1", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.0.n" }, { "label": "minutes", "value": "4", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.0.minutes" }, { "label": "dwell", "value": "4 dk", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.0.dwell" }, { "label": "out", "value": "RET", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.0.out" } ] }, { "id": "1", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.1", "fields": [ { "label": "n", "value": "#2", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.1.n" }, { "label": "minutes", "value": "9", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.1.minutes" }, { "label": "dwell", "value": "9 dk", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.1.dwell" }, { "label": "out", "value": "RET", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.1.out" } ] }, { "id": "2", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.2", "fields": [ { "label": "n", "value": "#3", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.2.n" }, { "label": "minutes", "value": "31", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.2.minutes" }, { "label": "dwell", "value": "31 dk", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.2.dwell" }, { "label": "out", "value": "KIRILMA", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches.2.out" } ] } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touches" }, { "type": "callout", "tone": "note", "text": [ "Bantta en uzun kalan dokunuş seviyeyi kırdı. Tek bir gün, temsili örnek; oranlar üçüncü hücrede." ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.touchesNote" }, { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "resultTitle", "value": "Kırılma oranı · seviye ailesine göre", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.resultTitle" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.resultTitle" }, { "type": "table", "columns": [], "rows": [ [ "PIVOT", "41", "40" ], [ "PDHLC", "41", "40" ], [ "ROUND", "41", "40" ], [ "SWING", "41", "40" ], [ "FIB", "39", "39" ] ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.families" }, { "type": "list", "title": "Her yıl aynı sonuç", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.years" }, { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "verdict", "value": "Fark yok: seviyenin adı kırılma olasılığını değiştirmiyor.", "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.verdict" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.verdict" }, { "type": "callout", "tone": "note", "text": [ "Temsili grafik; oranlar yayımlanan çalışmadandır." ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo.caption" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.hero.demo" } ] }, { "id": "studies", "anchor": "studies", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research#studies", "kind": "features", "component": "StudyShelf", "sources": [ "messages:quantResearch.studies" ], "eyebrow": "ÇALIŞMALAR", "title": "yayımlanan iki çalışma.", "lead": "Her çalışmanın örneklemi, dönemi ve kontrol yöntemi açık. Bir bulgu seçin; şekildeki karşılığı öne çıksın.", "demo": false, "placeholder": false, "blocks": [ { "type": "callout", "tone": "note", "text": [ "Yayımlanan çalışmadan; araştırma amaçlıdır, yatırım tavsiyesi değildir." ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.note" }, { "type": "cards", "items": [ { "id": "levels", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0", "title": "Seviyeler gerçekten tutuyor mu?", "meta": [ "EURUSD ve GBPUSD · 2020–2026" ], "text": [ "Pivot, önceki gün seviyeleri, yuvarlak rakamlar, swing ve Fibonacci seviyelerinde fiyatın kırıp kırmadığını, aynı mesafe dağılımına sahip anlamsız kontrol çizgileriyle karşılaştırdık." ], "fields": [ { "label": "sample", "value": "83.527", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.sample" }, { "label": "sample unit", "value": "dokunuş", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.sampleUnit" } ], "blocks": [ { "type": "definitions", "title": "KÜNYE", "items": [ { "label": "Örneklem", "value": "83.527 dokunuş", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.0" }, { "label": "Dönem", "value": "2020–2026", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.1" }, { "label": "Pariteler", "value": "EURUSD · GBPUSD", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.2" }, { "label": "Çözünürlük", "value": "M1 (dakikalık)", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.3" }, { "label": "Kontrol", "value": "Mesafe eşleşmeli çizgiler", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.4" }, { "label": "Tekrar", "value": "GBPUSD'de tekrarlandı", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts.5" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.facts" }, { "type": "list", "title": "BULGULAR", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "Bütün seviye aileleri yaklaşık %41 kırıldı; eşleşmiş kontrol çizgileri %40. Yedi yılın her birinde aynı.", "Seviyeye kaçıncı kez dokunulduğu sonucu değiştirmedi: 1. dokunuştan 5. dokunuşa %41, %40, %39, %42, %44.", "Değişen tek şey, fiyatın o anki dokunuşta seviyenin yakınında ne kadar kaldığıydı. Aynı sonuç GBPUSD'de nokta nokta tekrarlandı." ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.findings" }, { "type": "list", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "Seviye ailesine göre kırılma", "Dokunuş sırasına göre kırılma", "Bantta kalma süresine göre kırılma" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.panels" }, { "type": "cards", "items": [ { "id": "link", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.link", "title": "Bekleme süresi grafiğine git", "links": [ { "label": "Bekleme süresi grafiğine git", "href": "#dwell", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.link.href" } ] } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.0.link" } ] }, { "id": "gaps", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1", "title": "Hafta sonu boşlukları kapanır mı?", "meta": [ "EURUSD · hafta sonu ve tatil köprüleri" ], "text": [ "Pazartesi açılışındaki boşluğun Cuma kapanışına ne zaman geri döndüğünü ve dönmeden önce fiyatın ne kadar uzağa gittiğini ölçtük." ], "fields": [ 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"title": "BULGULAR", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "Boşlukların %65'i açılış seansında kapandı; kapananlarda medyan süre 11 dakika.", "%95'i beş işlem günü içinde, %98'i altmış gün içinde kapandı.", "Kapanmayan küçük kuyruk, jeopolitik şok günleriyle birebir örtüştü. 5 pipten büyük boşluklarda kapanmadan önceki sapma medyanı 21 pip, en kötü onda birlik dilimde 120 pip." ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1.findings" }, { "type": "list", "style": "bullet", "items": [ "Açılış seansında kapananlar", "Zamanla kapanan pay", "Kapanmadan önceki sapma" ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1.panels" }, { "type": "cards", "items": [ { "id": "link", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1.link", "title": "Boşluk grafiğine git", "links": [ { "label": "Boşluk grafiğine git", "href": "#gaps", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1.link.href" } ] } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.items.1.link" } ] } ], "source": 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"value": "pip", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.labels.pipsUnit" }, { "label": "allGaps", "value": "tüm boşluklar", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.labels.allGaps" }, { "label": "bigGaps", "value": "20 pip üstü", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.labels.bigGaps" }, { "label": "logScale", "value": "log ölçek", "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies.labels.logScale" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.studies" } ] }, { "id": "dwell", "anchor": "dwell-heading", "url": "https://oxarus.com/tr/quant/research#dwell-heading", "kind": "content", "component": "DwellExplorer", "sources": [ "messages:quantResearch.dwell" ], "eyebrow": "SEVİYEDE KALMA", "title": "seviyede ne kadar kaldı?", "lead": "Fiyat bir seviyenin bandında ne kadar uzun kalırsa, o seviyeyi kırma olasılığı o kadar artıyor; sonra yatay seyrediyor. Bir süre seçin; grafik ve aralıklar birlikte güncellenir.", "demo": false, "placeholder": false, "blocks": [ { "type": "definitions", "items": [ { "label": "stop option", "value": "≥{minutes} dk", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.stopOption" }, { "label": "replication", "value": "GBPUSD tekrarı", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.replication" }, { "label": "probability", "value": "kırılma olasılığı", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.probability" }, { "label": "base", "value": "taban", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.base" }, { "label": "lift", "value": "tabana göre", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.lift" }, { "label": "lift unit", "value": "puan", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.liftUnit" }, { "label": "not measured", "value": "ölçülmedi", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.notMeasured" }, { "label": "pair eur", "value": "EURUSD", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.pairEur" }, { "label": "pair gbp", "value": "GBPUSD", "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.pairGbp" } ], "source": "messages:quantResearch.dwell.stopOption" }, { "type": "callout", "tone": "note", "text": [ "Seviye bandında geçen süreye göre kırılma olasılığı. 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